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On Booms That Never Bust : Ambiguity in Experimental Asset Markets with Bubbles

Brice Corgnet, Roberto Hernán-González, Praveen Kujal, Working paper GATE 2018-25
We study the effect of ambiguity on the formation of bubbles and on the occurrence of crashes in experimental asset markets à la Smith, Suchanek, and Williams (1988). We extend their framework to an environment where the fundamental value of the asset is ambiguous. We show that, when the fundamental value is ambiguous, asset prices tend to be lower than when it is risky although bubbles form in both the ambiguous and the risky environments. Additionally, bubbles do not crash in the ambiguous case whereas they do so in the risky one. These findings regarding depressed prices and the absence of crashes in the presence of ambiguity are in line with recent theoretical work stressing the crucial role of ambiguity to account for surprisingly low equity prices (high returns) as well as herding in asset markets.

The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level in non-Ricardian Economy

Rym Aloui, Michel Guillard, Working paper GATE 2018-24
The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) is an important theory that recognizes the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy. In its simplest form, the FTPL assumes that the government commits to a fixed and exogenous present value of primary surpluses implying the adjustment of the price level to equate the real government debt to the present value of primary surpluses. The FTPL relies on the presence of primary surpluses to work. We show that this condition is not necessary in a non-Ricardian economy. The FTPL still hold even when exogenous primary surpluses are null. We consider an overlapping generations of infinitely-lived dynasties model with simple fiscal and monetary policies, where the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates is taken into account. A bubble-like component of government debt appears inducing the determination of the price level by the fiscal policy, when the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates is binding and even when the government primary surpluses equal zero.