Groupe d’Analyse et de Théorie Economique - UMR 5824

- Les derniers Working Papers :

Are compact cities environmentally friendly ?

Carl Gaigné, Stéphane Riou, Jacques-François Thisse
There is a large consensus among international institutions and national govern- ments to favor urban-containment policies - the compact city - as a way to reduce the ecological footprint of cities. This approach overlooks the following basic trade-off : the concentration of activities decreases the ecological footprint stemming from commodity shipping between cities, but it increases emissions of greenhouse gas by inducing longer worktrips. What matters for the ecological footprint of cities is the mix between urban density and the global pattern of activities. As expected, when both the intercity and intraurban distributions of activities are given, a higher urban density makes cities more environmentally friendly and raises global welfare. However, once we account for the fact that cities may be either monocentric or polycentric as well as for the relocation of activities between cities, the relationship between density and the ecological footprints appears to be much more involved. Indeed, because changes in urban density affect land rents and wages, firms are incited to relocate, thus leading to new commuting patterns. We show policies that favor the decentralization of jobs in big cities may reduce global pollution and improve global welfare.

The Effect of Nominal Exchange Rate Volatility on Real Macroeconomic Performance in the CEE Countries

Olga Arratibel, Davide Furceri, Reiner Martin, Aleksandra Zdzienicka This paper analyzes the relation between nominal exchange rate volatility and several macroeconomic variables, namely real per output growth, excess credit, foreign direct investment (FDI) and the current account balance, in the Central and Eastern European EU Member States. Using panel estimations for the period between 1995 and 2008, we find that lower exchange rate volatility is associated with higher growth, higher stocks of FDI, higher current account deficits, and higher excess credit. The results are economically and statistically significant, and robust.

Are the New Trading Blocs Building or Stumbling Blocks ? A Gravity Model Using Panel Data

Jérôme Trotignon We will be asking ourselves if the trading blocs created or renewed since the end of the 1980s favor the multilateralization of trade, and so constitute building or stumbling blocks. In a gravity model using panel data, we estimate a set of three regional dummies representative of intra-bloc trade, extra-bloc exports and extra-bloc imports. Taking the resulting three coefficients as a starting point, we propose an original typology of trade creations / diversions and of trading blocs. In applying it to our results, all the groups chosen as well as the Economic and Monetary Union, are shown to be building blocks. No trade diversion is noted, with the exception of an export diversion brought about by North American Free Trade Agreement.

Prix fonciers et demande de sol à usage résidentiel en France - 1975-2000

Florence Goffette-Nagot Ce travail documente l’augmentation des prix des terrains à bâtir en France sur une période de vingt-cinq ans. Nous estimons sur un échantillon national une fonction de prix foncier tenant compte de la croissance urbaine. Nous considérons une relation concave entre le prix des terrains et leur superficie, tout en traitant l’endogénéité de cette dernière. Un biais de sélection tenant à la nature de l’échantillon observé est corrigé. Les résultats permettent de distinguer, dans l’évolution des prix fonciers, un effet temporel pur et une modification de la localisation des constructions neuves et des caractéristiques des localisations. L’élasticité-prix et l’élasticité-revenu de la demande de sol des ménages est également estimée.

Cooperation and Competition in Intergenerational Experiments in the Field and the Laboratory

Gary Charness, Marie Claire Villeval There is economic pressure towards the postponement of the retirement age, but employers are still reluctant to employ older workers. We investigate the comparative behavior of juniors and seniors in experiments conducted both onsite with the employees of two large firms and in a conventional laboratory environment with students and retirees. We show that seniors are no more risk averse than juniors and are typically more cooperative ; both juniors and working seniors respond strongly to competition. The implication is that it may be beneficial to define additional incentives near the end of the career to motivate and retain older workers.

Wage bargaining with non-stationary preferences under strike decision

Ahmet Ozkardas, Agnieszka Rusinowska In this paper, we present a non-cooperative wage bargaining model in which preferences of both parties, a union and a firm, are expressed by the sequences of discount rates varying in time. For such a wage bargaining with non-stationary preferences, we determine subgame perfect equilibria between the union and the firm for the case when the union is supposed to go on strike in each period in which there is a disagreement. A certain generalization of the original Rubinstein bargaining model is applied to determine these equilibria.

A spatial analysis of residential land prices in Belgium : accessibility, linguistic border and environmental amenities

Florence Goffette-Nagot, Isabelle Reginster, Isabelle Thomas This paper explores the spatial variation of land prices in Belgium. The originality of the methodology is threefold : (1) to work at the spatial extent of an entire country, (2) to compute several accessibility measures to all jobs and several representations of the environmental amenities and, more importantly, (3) to test the hypothesis that jobs influence land prices only in the same linguistic region. Spatial autocorrelation is accounted for by estimating spatial models. The results show that the linguistic border acts as a strong barrier in the spatial pattern of land prices and that environmental variables have no significant effect at this scale of spatial analysis.

The spread of international financial shocks to Asean countries

Céline Gimet This article focuses on the reaction of Asean economies to international financial shocks. The crises in emerging markets at the end of the last century underlined the vulnerability of emerging Asean economies to international financial fluctuations and a lack of sustainability in their exchange rate regime. A Structural VAR model is used to analyze the efficiency of the measures adopted by these countries, after this crisis episode, to protect their economies against speculative attacks. The results reveal that the impact of the current subprime crisis on emerging Asean countries is less significant than that observed in industrialized ones.

The Welfare Gains of Trade Integration in the European Monetary Union

Stéphane Auray, Aurélien Eyquem, Jean-Christophe Poutineau This paper evaluates the welfare gains arising from a deeper trade integration in the European Monetary Union. To do this, the European Monetary Union is represented in a realistic way by an intertemporal general equilibrium model with incomplete Önancial markets, sticky prices and home bias both in private consumption and production. The model is estimated and globally not rejected by the data. Two main results emerge : (i) an increase in vertical (intermediate goods) trade implies welfare gains while (ii) an increase in horizontal trade implies welfare losses.

Incentive Effects on Risk Attitude in Small Probability Prospects

Mathieu Lefebvre, Ferdinand Vieider, Marie-Claire Villeval Most studies on the role of incentives on risk attitude report data obtained from within-subject experimental investigations. This may however raise an issue of sequentiality of effects as later choices may be influenced by earlier ones. This paper reports instead between-subject results on the effect of monetary stakes on risk attitudes for small probability prospects in a laboratory experiment. Under low stakes, we find the typical risk seeking behavior for small probabilities predicted by the prospect theory. But under high stakes, we provide some evidence that risk seeking behavior is dramatically reduced. This could suggest that utility is not consistently concave over the outcome space, but rather contains a convex section for very small amounts.

The Ratio Bias Phenomenon : Fact or Artifact ?

Mathieu Lefebvre, Ferdinand Vieider, Marie-Claire Villeval The ratio bias––according to which individuals prefer to bet on probabilities expressed as a ratio of large numbers to normatively equivalent or superior probabilities expressed as a ratio of small numbers––has recently gained momentum, with researchers especially in health economics emphasizing the policy importance of the phenomenon. Although the bias has been replicated several times, some doubts remain about its economic significance. Our two experiments show that the bias disappears once order effects are excluded, and once salient and dominant incentives are provided. This holds true for both choice and valuation tasks. Also, adding context to the decision problem does not change this outcome. No ratio bias could be found in between-subject tests either, which leads us to the conclusion that the policy relevance of the phenomenon is doubtful at best.

Neighborhood effects on unemployment ? A test à la Altonji

Claire Dujardin, Florence Goffette-Nagot The aim of this paper is to test for the influence of neighborhood deprivation on individual unemployment probability in the case of Lyon (France). We estimate a bivariate probit model of unemployment and location in a deprived neighborhood. Our identification strategy is twofold. First, we instrument neighborhood type by the gender composition of household’s children and the spouse’s workplace. Second, we use the methodology proposed by Altonji et al. (2005), that in our case consists in making hypotheses as to the correlation between the unobservables that determine unemployment and the unobservables that influence the selection into neighborhood types. Our results show that the effect of neighborhood deprivation is not significantly different from zero in the bivariate probit with exclusion restrictions. We also show that a correlation of the unobservables as low as ten percent of the correlation of observables is sufficient to explain the positive neighborhood effect that is observed when endogeneity is not accounted for.

Rural households decisions towards income diversification : Evidence from a township in northern China

Sylvie Démurger, Martin Fournier, Weiyong Yang Economic reforms in rural China have brought opportunities to diversify both within-farm activities and off-farm activities. Participation in these activities plays an important role in increasing rural households’ income. This paper analyzes the factors that drive rural households and individuals in their income-source diversification choices for ten villages in Northern China. At the household level, we distinguish three types of diversification as opposed to grain production only : within farm (non- grain production) activities, local off-farm activities, and migration. At the individual level, we analyze the determinants of participation in three different types of jobs as compared to agricultural work : local off-farm employment, local self-employment and migration. At the household level, we find that land and labor availability stimulates on-farm diversification. Local off-farm activities are mostly driven by household wealth and credit constraints, while migration decisions strongly depend on the household age and composition. At the individual level, we find a clear gender and age bias in access to off-farm activities that are mostly undertaken by male and by young people. More surprisingly, education is found to play a role for accessing local wage employment but not in migration decision. As at the household level, the household assets position is found to strongly affect participation in any off-farm activity.

Interpersonal Comparisons of Utility in Bargaining : Evidence from a Transcontinental Ultimatum Game

Romina Boarini, Jean-François Laslier, Stéphane Robin This paper presents the experimental results of a “Transcontinental Ultimatum Game” implemented between India and France. The bargaining took the form of standard ultimatum games, but in one treatment Indian subjects made offers to French subjects and, in another treatment, French subjects made offers to Indian subjects. We observed that French→Indian bargaining mostly ended up with unequal splits of money in favour of French, while nearly equal splits were the most frequent outcome in Indian→French interactions. The experimental results are organized through a standard social reference model, modified for taking into account the different marginal value of money for bargainers. In our model bargaining is driven by relative standings comparisons between players, occurring in terms of real earnings (that is monetary earnings corrected for a purchasing power factor) obtained in the game. The norm of equity behind the equalization of real earnings is called local equity norm, and contrasted to a global equity norm which would encompass the wealth of players beyond the game. According to what we observed, no beyond-game concern seems to be relevantly endorsed by subjects.

Framing effects of risk communication in health-related decision making. Learning from a discrete choice experiment

Florence Nguyen, Marie-Odile Carrère, Nora Moumjid Background How to communicate uncertainty is a major concern in medicine and in health economics. We aimed at studying the framing effects of risk communication on stated preferences in a discrete choice experiment (DCE) performed to elicit women’s preferences for Hormone Replacement Therapy. Methods Two versions of the questionnaire were randomly administered to respondents. Multiple risks were expressed as natural frequencies using either a constant reference class (Design 1) or variable reference classes (Design 2). We first tested whether Design 1 would impose a lower cognitive burden than Design 2. We then examined whether the two designs resulted in different utility model estimates. Results Design 1 improved consistency (monotonicity and stability). However, rates of dominance or intransitive responses did not differ across designs. Design 1 decreased women’s sensitivity to the risk of fractures and increased their sensitivity to the risk of breast cancer as compared to all other attributes. Discussion Framing effects of risk communication on stated preferences may be a major problem in the design of DCEs. More research is needed to determine whether our findings are replicable and to further investigate the normative question of how to improve risk communication in health-related decision-making.

The Real Effect of Financial Crises in the European Transition Economies

Davide Furceri, Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand The aim of this work is to assess the impact of financial crises on output for 11 European transition economies (CEECs). The results suggest that financial crises have a significant and permanent effect, lowering long-term output by about 17 percent. The effect is more important in smaller countries, with relative higher dependence on external financing, and in which the banking sector noticed more important financial disequilibria. We also found that fiscal policy measures have been the most efficient tools in dealing with the crises, while the role of monetary policy instruments has been rather blinded. Exchange rate resulted to be more a propagator than a crises absorber, while the IMF credit has been found to have positive (but not significant) impact on growth performance. Finally, the effect for the CEECs is much bigger than in the EU advanced economies, for which we found that financial crises lowers long-term output only by 2 percent.

Inequity and Risk Aversion in Sequential Public Good Games

Sabrina Teyssier

This paper analyzes which type of intrinsic preferences drive an agent’s behavior in a sequential public good game depending on whether the agent is first or second mover. Theoretical predictions are based on heterogeneity of individuals in terms of social and risk preferences. We modelize preferences according to the inequity aversion model of Fehr and Schmidt (1999) and to the assumption of constant relative risk aversion. Risk aversion is significantly and negatively correlated with the contribution decision of first movers. Second movers with sufficiently high advantageous inequity aversion free-ride less and reciprocate more than others. Both results are predicted by our model. Nevertheless, no effect of disadvantageous inequity aversion of first movers is found in the data while theory predicted it. Our results underline the importance of taking into account the order of agents’ play to correctly understand which type of preferences influences cooperation in voluntary contribution mechanisms. They suggest that individuals’ behavior can be consistent between different experimental games.

The Macroeconomic Performance of the Inflation Targeting Policy : An Approach Based on the Evolutionary Co-spectral Analysis

Zied Ftiti

This paper proposes a new methodology to check the economic performance of a monetary policy and in particular the inflation targeting policy (ITP). The main idea of this work is to consider the ITP as economically efficient when it generates a stable monetary environment. The latter is considered as stable when a long-run equilibrium exists to which the paths of economic variables (inflation rate, interest rate and GDP growth) converge. The convergence of the variables’ paths implies that these variables are more predictable and implies a lower degree of uncertainty in the economic environment. To measure the degree of convergence between economic variables, we propose, in this paper, a dynamic time-varying variable presented in the frequency approach named cohesion. This variable is estimated from the evolutionary co-spectral theory as defined by Priestley and Tong (1973) and Priestley (1988-1996). We apply this theory to the measure of cohesion presented by Croux et al (2001) to obtain a dynamic time-varying measure. In the last step of the study, we apply the Bai and Perron test (1998-2003b) to determine the change in the cohesion path. The results show that the implementation of the ITP generates a high degree of convergence between economic series that implies less uncertainty into the monetary environment. We conclude that the inflation targeting generates a stable monetary environment. This result allows us to conclude that the ITP is relevant in the case of industrialized countries.

Vulnerabilities in Central and Eastern European countries : Dynamics of asymmetric shocks

Aleksandra Zdzienicka In this work, we use the VAR and space-state methodology to analyze how the recent developments in 20 European countries have modified the dynamics of structural shocks. Our results confirm a visible progress in (predominated output fluctuations) supply shocks convergence between the CEECs and the euro zone, but also corroborate a positive initial impact of EMU creation and EU enlargement supply shocks correlation. In particular, we find that Croatia, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia are good candidates to the euro adoption under condition of greater fiscal policy alignment.

Are Fast Court Proceedings Good or Bad ? : Evidence from Japanese Household Panel Data

Charles Yuji Horioka, Shizuka Sekita We analyze the effect of the degree of judicial enforcement on the probability of credit constraints, the amount of loan and the probability of default. Contrary to the traditional view on judicial efficiency of credit market, our estimation results show that better judicial enforcement increases the probability of being rationed and decreases credit granted by banks, consistent with laziness effects. In order to confirm the laziness effect more directly, we analyzed the effect of the degree of judicial enforcement on the probability of default and found that better judicial enforcement increases the probability of default, as expected.

Macroeconomic Volatility and Exchange Rate Pass-through under Internationalized Production

Aurélien Eyquem, Güneş Kamber This paper shows that internationalized production, modelled as trade in inter- mediate goods, challenges the standard result according to which exchange rate volatility insulates small open economies from external shocks. Movements of relative prices aect the economy through an additional channel, denoted as the cost channel. We show that this channel also acts as an automatic stabilizer and that macroeconomic volatility is dramatically reduced when trade in intermedi- ate goods is taken into account. Finally, trade in intermediate goods aects the exchange rate pass-through to consumption prices and may contribute explain- ing the puzzle described by McCallum & Nelson (2000).

Dynamic models of residential segregation : Brief review, analytical resolution and study of the introduction of coordination

Sébastian Grauwin, Florence Goffette-Nagot, Pablo Jensen In his 1971’s Dynamic Models of Segregation paper, the economist Thomas C. Schelling showed that a small preference for one’s neighbors to be of the same color could lead to total segregation, even if total segregation does not correspond to individual preferences and to a residential configuration maximizing the collective utility. The present work is aimed at deepening the understanding of the properties of dynamic models of segregation based on Schelling’s hypotheses. Its main contributions are (i) to offer a comprehensive and up-to-date review of this family of models ; (ii) to provide an analytical solution to the most general form of this model under rather general assumptions ; to the best of our knowledge, such a solution did not exist so far ; (iii) to analyse the effect of two devices aimed at decreasing segregation in such a model. Chapter one summarizes the ingredients of Schelling’s models. We show how the choices of the agent’s utility function, of the neighborhood description and of the dynamical rule can impact the outcome of a model. Based on the observation of simulations’ results, we find that the neighborhood description does not have a qualitative impact. As regards the dynamical rules, we show that the Logit Behavioral rule introduced in this literature by Young (1998) ; Zhang (2004b) presents several advantages relatively to the Best Response rule. Chapter two presents a general analytical solution to the model. To that aim, Schelling’s model is recasted within the framework of evolutionary game theory, as previously done by Young (1998) ; Zhang (2004b). This allows to define sufficient assumptions regarding agents’ utility functions that permit predicting the final state of the system starting from any configuration. This analytical resolution is then used to consider the outcomes of Schelling’s utility function and of other utility functions previously used in this context. Chapter three examines the effects of introducing coordination in the moving decisions. This coordination is achieved through two different ways. We first impose different levels of taxes proportional to the externality generated by each move of the agents. It is shown that even a low level of tax is sufficient under certain circumstances to significantly reduce segregation. We then investigate the effect of the introduction of a local coordination by vote of co-proprietors, who are defined as the closest neighbors of each agent. It is shown that even a small amount of coordination can break segregation.

A Relation-algebraic Approach to Simple Games

Rudolf Berghammer, Agnieszka Rusinowska, and Harrie de Swart Simple games are a powerful tool to analyze decision-making and coalition formation in social and political life. In this paper, we present relation-algebraic models of simple games and develop relational algorithms for solving some basic problems of them. In particular, we test certain fundamental properties of simple games (being monotone, proper, respectively strong) and compute specific players (dummies, dictators, vetoers, null players) and coalitions (minimal winning coalitions and vulnerable winning coalitions). We also apply relation-algebra to determine central and dominant players, swingers and power indices (the Banzhaf, Holler-Packel and Deegan-Packel indices). This leads to relation-algebraic specifications, which can be executed with the help of the BDD-based tool RelView after a simple translation into the tool’s programming language. In order to demonstrate the visualization facilities of RelView we consider an example of the Catalonian Parliament after the 2003 election.

Vulnerabilities in Central and Eastern Europe : Credit Growth

Aleksandra Zdzienicka In this work, we try to analyze the recent credit development in 11 Central and Eastern European countries and estimate the credit-to-GDP ratio equilibrium level using filtering methods and dynamic panel estimations. Our estimation findings corroborate previous fears about the rapid credit growth in the CEECs. Indeed, in many cases the credit expansion exceeds the level justified by their fundamentals or financial development. Under normal conditions, this rapid growth and even ’’overshooting’’ of banking credit could be considered as an adjustment to its long-term equilibrium level. However, in the actual crisis situation, this excessive credit growth can reinforce other existing disequilibria and lead to an increase in the financial vulnerability of these countries.

Stabilité dans l’emploi et statut résidentiel

Carole Brunet Employment stability and residential status : This study uses French data of The European Community Household Panel (1994-2001) to evaluate the influence of homeownership on individuals’ employment stability and on the types of associated exits if the job ends. Following a recent literature concerned with the effects of residential status on individual labour market outcomes, we examine whether homeowners are characterized by a higher risk of unemployment than tenants. At the same time, we also wonder about the effects of the residential status on the level of employee mobility, in the sense of job to job transitions. After a review of the literature, a general presentation of the data allows a first insight into the links between residential status, labour mobility and residential mobility. An econometric modeling of employment durations is then proposed and applied to a sample of job spells from the Panel Européen des Ménages . Until now these questions have been ignored in French studies. A positive impact of owner’s status on employment duration is found, in particular when housing related financial constraints weigh on individuals, or when a change of employment implies a residential move. On the other hand, ow- ner’s status exercises a significant impact on the reduction of the unemployment risk, regardless of the type of employment contract.

Market Share, R&D Cooperation, and EU Competition Policy

Richard Ruble, Bruno Versaevel Current EU policy exempts horizontal R&D agreements from antitrust con- cerns when the combined market shares of participants are low enough. This paper argues that existing theory does not support limiting the exemption to low market shares. This is done by introducing a set of non-innovating outside firms to the standard framework to assess what link might exist between the market share of innovating firms and the product market benefits of cooperation. With R&D output choices, the market share criterion, while it rules out the most socially harmful R&D cooperation agreements, also hinders the most beneficial ones. With R&D input choices, cooperation may actually be desirable in concentrated industries, and harmful in more competitive ones. If R&D cooperation does have anti-competitive effects in product markets, it seems that these are therefore best addressed by other tools than market share criteria.

Optimal Collusion with Limited Severity Constraint

Etienne Billette de Villemeur, Laurent Flochel, Bruno Versaevel Collusion sustainability depends on firms’ aptitude to impose sufficiently severe punishments in case of deviation from the collusive rule. We characterize the ability of oligopolistic firms to implement a collusive strategy when their ability to punish deviations over one or several periods is limited by a severity constraint. It captures all situations in which either structural conditions (the form of payoff functions), institutional circumstances (a regulation), or financial considerations (profitability requirements) set a lower bound to firms’ losses. The model specifications encompass the structural assumptions (A1-A3) in Abreu (1986) [Journal of Economic Theory, 39, 191-225]. The optimal punishment scheme is characterized, and the expression of the lowest discount factor for which collusion can be sustained is computed, that both depend on the status of the severity constraint. This extends received results from the literature to a large class of models that include a severity constraint, and uncovers the role of structural parameters that facilitate collusion by relaxing the constraint.

An Agent-Based Simulation of Rental Housing Markets

John Mc Breen, Florence Goffette-Nagot, Pablo Jensen We simulate a closed rental housing market with search and matching frictions, in which both landlord and tenant agents are imperfectly informed. Homogeneous landlords set rents to maximise revenue, using information on the market to estimate the relationship between posted rent and time-on-the-market (TOM). Tenants, heterogeneous in income, engage in undirected search accepting residences based on their idiosyncratic tastes for housing and a disagreement point derived from information on the distribution of offers. The steady state to which the simulation evolves shows price dispersion, nonzero search times and vacancies. The main results concern the effects of increasing information on either side of the market. When tenants see a greater percentage of the distri- bution of offers, tenants learn to refuse high rents and so the population rises and tenants’ utilities rise as does overall welfare. Conversely, when landlords have less information, their utility can rise as over estimations in best posting rent move the market to higher rents.

Financial Vulnerability in the Central and Eastern European Countries

Irène Andreou, Aleksandra Zdzienicka In this work we use a panel probit model to analyze the sources of financial vulnerability in four Central and Eastern European countries. The incontestable advantages of applying this method, associated with some elements of the non-parametric approach applied during the initial selection of the used indicators, allow us to accomplish, rather well, this objective. Indeed, the model performs considerably well in the sample and the whole approach can provide useful and supportive instruments for the study of financial vulnerabilities in transition economies.

Cumulative Leadership and Entry Dynamics

Bruno Versaevel This paper investigates the combined impact of a first-mover advantage and of firms’ limited mobility on the equilibrium outcomes of a continuous-time model adapted from by Boyer, Lasserre, and Moreaux (2007). Two firms face market development uncertainty and may enter by investing in lumpy capacity units. With perfect mobility, when the first entrant plays as a Stackelberg leader a Markov perfect preemption equilibrium obtains in which the leader invests earlier, and the follower later, than in the Cournot benchmark scenario. There is rent equalization, and the two firms’ equilibrium value is lower. This result is not robust to the introduction of firm-specific limited mobility constraints. If one firm is sufficiently less able than its rival to mobilize resources at early stages of the market development process, there is less rent dissipation, and no equalization, in a constrained preemption equilibrium. The first-mover advantage on the product market then results in more value for the less constrained firm, and in less value for the follower than when they play `a la Cournot with perfect mobility. The leading firm maximizes value by entering immediately before its constrained rival, though later than made possible by its superior mobility. Greater uncertainty reduces the value differential to the benefit of the follower. It also increases the distance between the firms’ respective investment triggers. The specifications and results are discussed in light of recent developments in the market for music downloads.

A game theoretic model for generation capacity adequacy in electricity markets : A comparison between investment incentive mechanisms

Mohamed Haikel Khalfallah In this paper we study the problem of long-term capacity adequacy in electricity markets. We implement a dynamic model in which operators compete for investment and electricity production under imperfect Cournot competition. The main aim of this work is to compare three investment incentive mechanisms : reliability options, forward capacity market - which are both market-based - and capacity payments. Apart from the oligopoly case, we also analyze collusion and monopoly cases. Stochastic dynamic programming is used to deal with the stochastic environment of the market (future demand) and mixed complementarity problem formulation is employed to find a solution to this game. The main finding of this study is that market-based mechanisms would be the most cost-efficient mechanism for assuring long-term system adequacy and encouraging earlier and adequate new investments in the system. Moreover, generators would exert market power when introducing capacity payments. Finally, compared with a Cournot oligopoly, collusion and monopolistic situations lead to more installed capacities with market-based mechanisms and increase end-users’ payments.

François Perroux, a precursor of the current analyses of power

René Sandretto Despite its important contributions to economic thought, namely in the field of spatial economics and economics of development, François Perroux, one of the most important French economists of the 20st century, remains today poorly appreciated and frequently unrecognized. This paper tends to show how unfair is this deficit of recognition. We underline Perroux’s illuminating views on asymmetry, domination and power which can be considered as a prefiguration and – to some extent – as a generalization of works made in this field half a century later, for example the American realist and neo-realist approaches of power (namely the concepts of hard and soft power) or by Susan Strange (with her concept of structural power).

The effect of health care expenditures on survival in locally advanced and metastatic Non Small Cell Lung Cancer

Lionel Perrier, Magali Morelle, Nathalie Havet, Anthony Montella, Bertrand Favier, David Pérol, Frédéric Gomez, Marie-Odile Carrère, Paul Rebattu Context : The significant survival benefit of chemotherapy over best supportive care for locally advanced and metastatic NSCLC has been amply demonstrated in the literature. However, there is no clear evidence of the impact of the type of chemotherapy or of a superiority of combination chemotherapy over single-agent chemotherapy. Objective : The present study empirically examines, in real-life practise and using multiple proxies, the impact of health care expenditures on overall survival in locally advanced and metastatic NSCLC in order to guide medical decision-making. Methods : Disease characteristics, the resources used, the costs of treatment and survival data were retrospectively collected from the records of 175 patients treated between 2000 and 2004 at Léon Bérard Regional Cancer Center (Lyon, France). Survival data were modelled using multivariate Cox models and controlled for endogeneity with the instrumental variable method. Results : The median survival for the whole cohort was 289 days. The average total cost of treatment reached €35,160. Survival was significantly shorter for patients with stage IV disease, poor performance status, and past or concomitant cardiovascular disease and/or diabetes, for current smokers, and for patients with adenocarcinoma compared to large cell carcinoma. Survival duration was not significantly associated with the total cost of treatment per day of hospitalisation, the number of chemotherapy drugs administered, nor inpatient length of stay. Conclusion : Higher care expenditures do not appear to improve survival for patients with locally advanced or metastatic NSCLC. Hence, maintaining patient quality of life and tailoring therapy to stage, histology and comorbidities appears to be the less bad choice.